Sturm Graz vs Marseille: preview
We count the predictions for the match between Sturm Graz and Marseille in the third round of the general phase of the 2026/27 Europa League. In the third round, the losers of the initial matches will face each other. "Sturm" aims to score the first goal of the tournament. "Marseille" is preparing for a debut victory.
Key moments
Sturm Graz
1. "Sturm" is effective in Austria, but has not scored in Europe this season.
The Graz club fails to balance domestic competitions with European tournaments. After the international break, "Sturm" played two league matches, winning 2:0 against "Austria" and 6:1 against "Grazer". The team showed power in attack and solidity in defense. In these encounters, the Austrians played in the Europa League without prospects, losing 0:3 to "Bournemouth". In the first round of the European tournaments, Fabián Ingolitsch's team drew 0:0 with "Rennes" at home. The formidable attack in the Austrian league does not surprise the rival defenders.
2. "Sturm" lost its starting goalkeeper
The win over "Grazer" was a stroke of luck: Daniil Khudyakov suffered a serious injury and will not play this season. The starting goalkeeper will be Ammar Helach. In addition to the Russian, players Otar Keteishvili, Gizo Mamagieishvili, Sidi Jatta, Emran Soglo, Nelson Viper and Filip Rozha cannot participate due to injuries. Except for the last two, all are youth players. The losses in each line undoubtedly affect the stability of play and results. The team leaders are Umar Diakite and Simon Zaidl, who shone in the derby with a hat-trick: one goal and two assists. Their performance will determine the team's offensive potential.
3. "Sturm" — a team on its own ground The Austrians practically never lose at home. In 2026, "Sturm" hosted opponents 16 times, losing only once, with nine wins and six draws. The team scores consistently and has never conceded more than one goal. The defense handles the load, even in European tournaments: out of four matches, two wins, one draw and one loss. In the first round of the Europa League, the team already stopped the French: "Rennes" 0:0.
Marseille
1. "Marseille" started winning in Ligue 1 Marseille players failed at the start of the season, losing six of nine matches, which is not surprising after selling the summer leaders. Experienced Bruno Genessi is gradually building a team capable of earning points. In Europe, the French are still adjusting. After the initial loss to "Besiktas" 1:4, followed by a home defeat to "Olympiacos" 0:1. In the league, "Marseille" won both matches in October: 2:0 against "Troyes" and 5:2 against "Angers". The team started scoring, indicating a path to recovery.
2. The Europa League — an opportunity for substitutes Bruno Genessi focuses on correcting the situation in Ligue 1. The French squad is limited, so in European tournaments the youngsters and substitutes get more playing time. As in the match with the Greeks, Nilo Mopo, Kéllian Abdallah and Bamo Mette can be expected at the start. The leaders might rest: Amin Guiri, Joffrey Kondogbia and Amin Arit. Derek Cornelius and Pierre-Emile Huijberg, who are injured, will not help. "Marseille" builds throughout the season; in October, the season's debutants were Bamo Mette and Nuhum Camissoko. The first played only in European tournaments, and the second in the league and achieved an assist.
3. Reduced squad and weak away play Due to financial problems, the French suddenly became a team without reserves, leading to a poor start of the season from which the club is barely recovering. In Europe, Bruno Genessi rotates to preserve the leaders with more energy for the league. Hence the defeats in the early rounds of the European tournaments. Another issue for "Marseille" this year is away play. In the last 14 meetings, the provincial teams won only four times, with one draw and nine defeats. The statistics are not very encouraging, especially before traveling to Austria.
Approximate formations
4-5-14-2-3-122Helac27Bálbo30Koller2Quarshi23Malich19Seidl4Gorenc-Štanković78Matoci39Weinhandl43Hödl14Diakite1de Lenge22Vea18Mette21Agerd25García6Nadi42Camissoko48Abdallah8Abdelli14Payshan11Mopo
Betting predictions
"Sturm" won five of the last eight home matches, and "Marseille" lost eight of the last 12 away matches. Bet: P1 ― 3.44.
Total over 2.5 played six of the last eight matches of "Sturm" and in three of the last five matches of "Marseille". Bet: TB2,5 1.70.
Prediction
Sturm Graz vs Marseille 22.10.2026 20:45
They are the losers of the initial rounds of the Europa League. The reasons for the poor start are identical: limited squad potential and low execution level against the rival. The Austrians explain it by the large number of injured players and the level of the domestic league, which is notably lower than European tournaments, making it difficult for players to adapt to higher speeds.
For "Marseille" there is simply a limited squad of experienced players; the promising youth of the French is unstable and needs time to adapt to the high level.
The live match is a great opportunity to break the streak of failures in Europe. But I think neither will take advantage of the opportunity. "Sturm" is strong at home, but its chances of success decrease due to the large number of injured players, especially the starting goalkeeper. The French will likely play with a 15-player squad, lacking cohesion and class. Moreover, "Marseille" plays poorly away. Therefore, I assume the teams will not determine a winner.
Prediction: 1-1
