Shinnik — Spartak Kostroma: Preview
We have the predictions for the match between Shinnik and Spartak Kostroma in the context of the 15th matchday of the First League 2026/27 season. The Volga derby should be interesting: last season both fixtures ended in draws, and now both teams are in the top half of the table.
Key points
Shinnik
1. "Shinnik" started very well, but in the last seven matches they won only one
At the start of this season, the Yaroslavl side surprised by taking points from "Sochi" (2:2) and "Torpedo" in Khimki (1:1), as well as winning away against tough home opponents: "Neftyehimik" (2:0) and "Volga" of Ulyanovsk (3:1). However, for Denis Boyarintsev, such a start is not so surprising. In 2023 he led "Sokol" of Saratov, which came out of the First League, and at the beginning of the first quarter of the year was in the elite promotion zone, but then the team fell into the survival battle and the coach was sacked during the season. "Shinnik" is stronger, but the decline has already begun and, in the last seven league matches, the team has won only once: against the outsider "Textilshchik". But they also suffered almost no defeats in that stretch: they recorded five draws.
2. Larin and Kosogorov miss the match
Shinnik rarely rotates the squad: Denis Boyarintsev has trained the team in a 4-4-2 formation. Now the coach cannot rely on the optimal combination. On the right side of the defense Artemiy Kosogorov will be absent, having been injured in August. However, Eduard Valiyahmetov performs well in the position. In midfield the most experienced player, Oleg Larin, missed the last game. Boyarintsev had to use Ivan Shmakov, who came from the Second League.
3. "Shinnik" handles stronger opponents well
At the start of the season, the Yaroslavl side took points from "Torpedo" away and from "Sochi". The same Denis Boyarintsev team also won in the Cup on their own ground (2:0). In the autumn, the Volga side took points from "Ural" (1:1) and from "Veles" that was unexpectedly in the leaders’ zone in Domodedovo (1:1). "Shinnik" knows how to play as the second number both in counter‑attacks, which can be a problem for "Spartak", which relies on vertical football. Only against "Nizhny Novgorod" the Yaroslavl side has failed twice, but the team of Vadim Garanin in another league is relatively comparable with their division peers.
Spartak Kostroma
1. The team overcame the slump
At the end of September‑October, the Kostroma side had a slump: the team lost consecutively to "Ural" (1:2) and "Arsenal" of Tula (2:3). It seemed that Spartak's strength football had stalled, and new ideas were needed to fight for promotion. But in the last two matches the team showed that its style remains effective for earning points against lower‑tier opponents. In the Cup, the Kostroma side beat "Chelyabinsk" (1:0), and in the league they comfortably defeated "Leningradets" (2:0). Now "Spartak" is in fourth place with a two‑point gap behind the second spot.
2. Kamilo returns to the base, the team’s reserve is long enough
The Kostroma coaching staff made a series of changes in the game with "Leningradets" compared to the last league match. In goal, after the not‑convincing performance of Mikhail Gaydash in Tula, considered the best goalkeeper in the league in September, Yegor Shamov appeared. Dmitry Kaptilovich and the most popular player in the championship on social media, Nader Mohammedi, moved to midfield. David Kirakosyan and Dmitry Gurtskaya got an opportunity. In Yaroslavl, the most experienced player in "Spartak" in terms of Premier League matches, Vladislav Kamilo, who served a suspension, returns to the base.
3. Kalmykov in fantastic form
In this season, the Kostroma forward is in impressive form. Amur has already scored thirteen league goals. Free kicks, Mohammedi’s corners, vertical football with Bosnian teammate Armín Spahić signing under Kalmykov’s style, long passes from goalkeepers: all were ineffective without the striker’s goal‑scoring talent. In the last season, the striker scored against the Yaroslavl side in the home match, and despite the rival’s reliable defense, continuations are expected. Amur scored two‑thirds of the team’s goals, but support appears: in the last round, defender Denis Zhilmoustny stood out for scoring a lot last season.
Approximate lineups
4-4-2 4-4-2 6-6
Janynovich 27
Chornyi 62
Karpov 49
Karaev 17
Valiyahmetov 50
Golubev Shmakov 15
Samoylov 10
Gongapshyev 24
Azavin 88
Mironov 50
Shamov 2
Tarasov 3
Bugriyev 5
Zhilmoustny 7
Malyrov 18
Kamilo 17
Kaptilovich 6
Mohammedi 70
Chervyakov 90
Kalmykov 87 Spahić
Betting trends
In four of the last five matches of "Shinnik" and four of the six games of "Spartak", at least one of the two teams did not score. OZ – no – at 1.75.
In six of the last seven matches of "Shinnik" and seven of the nine games of "Spartak", no more than two goals were scored. TM2 – at 1.85.
Prediction
Shinnik vs Spartak Kostroma 26.10.2026 19:30
"Shinnik" started very well – this is not new for Denis Boyarintsev, who in his time surprised at the start with "Sokol". The Yaroslavl side began to drop in the table: in the last seven matches they only secured one victory, but also only suffered one defeat. Except for matches against "Nizhny Novgorod", "Shinnik" does not lose to the leaders.
The Kostroma side recently lost consecutively to "Ural" and "Arsenal", but came out of the crisis, moving to the next Cup round and beating "Leningradets". The coaching staff made a rotation in the last round, and Vladislav Kamilo returns to the base.
Amur Kalmykov is in fantastic form: he scored two‑thirds of "Spartak"’s goals this season, and last season he had already beaten "Shinnik"’s goalposts. But the Yaroslavl side is an uncomfortable rival for the Kostroma side, so let’s assume a third consecutive draw in the head‑to‑head meetings.
Prediction: 1-1
