Shakhtar vs Dinamo Kiev: Preview
We have the forecast for the Shakhtar and Dinamo Kiev match in the round of 16 of the 2026/27 Ukrainian Cup. The round of 16 will feature the "Classic". Shakhtar aims to continue the winning streak over the Kiev side. Dinamo hopes to repeat last year's success in the Cup.
Key points
Shakhtar
1. Shakhtar had the worst week of the season
Ard Turan's players have not scored in two consecutive matches, something that rarely happens to them. First, they lost 0-1 to Inter in the Champions League, a match that was level with very few goal moments. The "Mountaineers" played in superiority from the 68th minute, but could not create danger against the Italian goalkeepers, and on the other hand, they missed the counter‑attack and for the first time did not earn points in European competitions.
Then came another disappointment. In the UPL Shakhtar could not beat Zarya (0-0), dominated the whole game, but once again execution failed. In the league the team shares first place with Peles, with 25 points each.
2. In the Cup they expect a league‑champion squad
The leaders did not play in the opening of the league, rested, and must stay in playing tone. Here they face a lower‑tier rival. In addition, they must overturn the recent results. I believe Ard Turan understands the importance of the game both in terms of tournament prospects and image. That is why I expect Vinícius Tobias, Caúan Elias, Alisson Santana, Gleiker Mendosa and other team leaders to start. They will not help injured teammates Ikarli Azarov, Eginaldo and Pedrinho. The last was injured in Milan, and if he is not 100%, it is unlikely the coach will risk him.
3. Shakhtar practically never loses to the Kiev side in recent years
In recent seasons the gap between the big Ukrainian clubs has widened. This is shown by the teams’ results in the UPL and Europe, but the best evidence is the statistics of direct encounters. Since 22 September 2021 the rivals have played 12 matches. The Donchans lost only once, with five draws and six wins. The last two matches also favored the mountaineers: 3-1 and 2-1. Moreover, the current results of the teams are incomparable. Shakhtar earns points in the Champions League, draws with Inter in Milan, and in the league has separated from the lower‑tier rival by six points. It could have been even better if not for the weekend error, which will only motivate the Donchans in the Cup.
Shakhtar
1. Macej Kenderek debuted at Dinamo with a win
The Polish specialist led the Kiev side last week and managed to beat Kudrivka 3-1. Dinamo had problems with combination play, the opponent did not let them enter their area. Therefore the team shot a lot from distance: the own goal and shots by Nikolai Mikhailenko and Alexander Pihalenk were scored with shots outside the area. With 19 points, they are in fourth place in the table. The Cup is another competition, and the opponent in it is the most important.
2. Macej Kenderek does not make massive changes to the lineup
The new coach changed the tactics from the predecessor, playing 4-2-3-1 instead of 4-1-4-1. He made some specific changes to the starting lineup. Back in goal is Georgiy Bouchan, the defense and the forward unchanged. And in midfield, Mikhailenko and Yarmolenko played instead of Rubchinsky and Kabayev. Perhaps Macej Kenderek wants more rotations, but injuries and the sub‑optimal form of most Kiev players prevent it. I think the coach had the game against Shakhtar in mind, so he played with two defenders, taking advantage of the Cup squad. Denis Popov, Konstantin Vicharenco, Bohdan Redushko and Vitaly Buiyslsky will not help the team – they have been injured for a long time.
3. The factor of the new coach and the cup character versus the opponent’s playing level
The Kiev side won the first match under Macej Kenderek. Usually, a coaching change gives an emotional boost to the players, and they play two or three matches at a good level. Dinamos won the first, the second the opponent of another level. Although in the Cup the Kiev side does not lose in the last two matches. In the 2025 final – a 1-1 draw in regular time, and in the last round – a win in the round of 16 with goals from Yarmolenko and Guerrero. For fairness, I will note that this is an increase amid a series of failures in direct encounters, and now the chances of the invited success, based on the teams’ play, are minimal.
Approximate lineups
4-1-4-1 4-2-3-1 3-1-4-1 4-2-3-1
Riznyk 13 Pedrinho 22 Matvienko 5 Bondar 17 Tobias 27 Ocheretko 77 Mendosa 6 Gomez 14 Isake 30 Santana 9 Elias 1 Bouchan 5 Sych 94 Kenderek 32 Mikhavko 44 Dubinchak 6 Brazhko 91 Mikhailenko 7 Yarmolenko 10 Shaparenko 9 Voloshin 11 Pomonarenko
Betting on the trend
Total over 2.5 played in five of the last six matches of Shakhtar and Dinamo. Bet: TB2,5 at 1.87.
Both teams scored in the last six direct encounters. Bet: OZ at 1.75.
Forecast
Dinamo Kiev vs Kudrivka 23.10.2026 15:00
In any state the rivals are always eagerly awaited. In recent years the Donchans dominate overall and in direct encounters, but the great victory was only one in five years. Dinamos know how to organize for the "Classic", show character, as in the class they have been surpassed for a long time, and it is not seen what in the near future they can at least approach the mountaineers. Shakhtar, despite last week's failures, is stable, organized and has two squads: one for European competitions, another for the UPL. Both successfully solve their tasks this season. The Kiev side, despite the playing crisis, the coaching change and possible squad modifications, their minimum due to the limited selection of executors. I think the game will show the current difference between the teams. Shakhtar is now far ahead.
Forecast: 2-0
