Nizhny Novgorod – Arsenal Tula: Preview
We present the predictions for the match between Nizhny Novgorod and Arsenal Tula in the 16th round of the 2026/27 First League.
"Nizhny Novgorod" remains unstoppable this autumn. The leader will try to be stopped by "Arsenal", which seeks to enter the top half of the table.
Key moments
Nizhny Novgorod
1. The winning streak continues
Although in the previous match against "Ufa" "Nizhny Novgorod" was very close to its first defeat in two months, the three points were secured with the only goal in the 91st minute. The team created few chances, but still managed the win, being the second time this season they scored fewer than two goals in a match. It is notable that this is the first home defeat against "Ufa" this season.
Besides its solid and wide squad, "Nizhny Novgorod" has character. Thanks to this, they won 13 of 15 league matches, accumulating 40 points. The team still tops the table with a comfortable eight‑point advantage. Including the Russian Cup, the winning streak extends to eight games.
2. Garanin regularly rotates the squad
"Nizhny Novgorod" has such an impressive roster that Vadim Garanin can move players around without difficulty, even on a weekly cycle and a long unbeaten run.
Recently, striker Vladislav Sarvelli and defender Gleb Shilnikov were in the starting lineup, while Ivan Bober and Yury Koldin were on the bench. Players may change positions again, with occasional substitutions in other spots.
3. "Nizhny Novgorod" gains balance
Updating effectiveness records, the team for a long time focused on attack and could not finish without goals; for example, at the end of summer they scored only one goal in nine matches, averaging 1.44 goals per 90 minutes.
Over time, Vadim Garanin added pragmatism, and now we see notable progress: in autumn, in total, only three goals were scored in eight matches across all competitions, and in a span of five games "Nizhny Novgorod" lost only to "Ural" (2:1) away. At home, in this stretch, the team scored three consecutive blowouts, netting 15 goals. And if previously in such matches Nizhny Novgorod allowed the opponent to score, now they win without margin.
Arsenal Tula
1. "Arsenal" won two of three matches under Alenichev
To compare, before the new coach arrived, only three wins were achieved from the start of the season. The winless streak, including the Cup, reached six games, and only two ended at least in a draw.
Alenichev started with a brilliant win against "Spartak" (3:2), and after the away loss to "Ufa" (0:2), an incredible comeback occurred in the home match against KAMAZ: in the second half "Arsenal" conceded three goals in 13 minutes, but then responded with three goals at the end, turning 1:3 into 4:3. The dramatic win helped widen the relegation gap and move up to the tenth position in the table.
2. Questions about Magomedov's condition
The striker became one of the protagonists in the match against KAMAZ: in the first half he scored a goal, and in the second he scored again. But at the end of the game Rashid was injured, which made his leg difficult to move.
If Magomedov does not recover, on Friday "Arsenal" will be without its top scorer. And the possible return of the main defender Oleg Isayenko to the starting eleven will probably not be reassuring.
3. "Arsenal" – the worst away team in the league
In the current First League season, 19 points have been scored, and 17 of them were earned at home. Only two points away – the lowest figure in the tournament. The two draws occurred in August; after them, "Arsenal" suffered five consecutive defeats in all competitions.
There are problems both in attack and defense. In seven league matches, they scored three goals – fewer than any other club. Before the trip to Nizhny Novgorod, "Arsenal" failed to score in four of five matches. On average, they lose 2.43 goals per game – only "Yenisey" (2.75) is worse. It is notable that even in the first away match under Alenichev, "Arsenal" lost without margin to "Ufa".
Approximate lineups
4-2-3-13-5-230
Medvedev66 Gudkov2 Alexandrov22 Kocoev3 Koldin78 Kalinskiy8 Mayga7 Bober18 Sokolov11 Popolytov27 Grulev42 Melikhov4 Penchikov82 Alekhin24 Gotsuk44 Isayenko8 Shamkin14 Brnovich19 Glushkov22 Urideya25 Biryukov23 Melyketscev
Betting on the trend
"Nizhny Novgorod" scored at least two goals in three of the last four matches against "Arsenal". IT1B 1.5 to 1.91.
In three of the last four matches between "Nizhny Novgorod" and "Arsenal" more than two goals were scored. TB 2.5 to 1.73.
Prediction
Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula 30.10.2026 21:15
Despite the comfortable gap, "Nizhny Novgorod" does not relax and extends the winning streak. Recently they inflicted the first home defeat to "Ufa", although this showed an almost exemplary defense – the only goal by Kalinskiy came in the final phase. In addition to the stronger squad, Garanin's team has character. Much of this translates into excellent results – 13 wins in 15 rounds and zero defeats since 30 August. In autumn, the balance of "Nizhny Novgorod" is evident: before they focused on attack, now they play without margin, even when holding a large advantage.
"Arsenal" revitalized with Alenichev's arrival: they just created an incredible comeback, scoring three goals at the end of the home match with KAMAZ (4:3). This is the second win in three October matches. However, the only exit ended badly – 0:2 against "Ufa". On the field, "Arsenal" is the worst in the league, and on Friday they risk a fifth consecutive away defeat.
Prediction: 3-0
