Irtish Pavlodar – Ordabasy: preview
We have the forecasts for the encounter between Irtish Pavlodar and Ordabasy in the 30th round of the 2026 Kazakh league.
"Ordabasy" won the championship early – the golden season of the KPL will end with the match against "Irtish", which has not yet secured its survival.
Key points
Irtish Pavlodar
1. "Irtish" has not yet secured survival in the KPL
Although the chances of survival are very high, after a poor streak of three goalless defeats at the most critical moment, "Irtish" recovered: in the last round they scored three goals and secured the important away win over "Atyrau", a direct rival in the fight for the elite.
Thus "Irtish" moved up to 12th place in the table. To remain guaranteed in the KPL it is enough to earn at least one point. The defeat will require monitoring the results of the parallel matches. However, "Irtish" will fall into the relegation zone only if the three competitors win their games. Additionally, "Zhetysu" will only equal the points, so the goal difference must also be watched. Theoretically it is possible, but the probability seems low. The media report that, regardless of the season's results, there will be major winter changes, even in the coaching staff.
2. Possible midfield replacement
Recently Erlan Shoytimov trusted Muradjon Khaltov, who had not appeared in the starting lineup since early September. The midfielder did not miss a beat, but was not convincing. Among the field players of "Irtish" who started from the beginning, the worst rated was the winger Yuji Shimamura. In this context there is a risk that Saturday Khaltov will again be a reserve – David Esimbekov will likely be placed back in the second midfield position.
3. "Irtish" has not played a goalless match in a long time
Since Saturday will end in a draw, it is likely that "Irtish" will mainly aim to minimise defensive mistakes. However, the defence cannot be considered a strength of the team. Throughout the season only three matches were goalless, and the last was in July, in an away match against "Kaysar" (0:0). Since then, "Irtish" has not been able to finish goalless in 13 consecutive matches. At home, "Irtish" only held "Altay" (1:0) – more than half a year ago. In 29 KPL rounds 44 goals were conceded, only "Zhetysu" (47) is worse in this respect.
Ordabasy
1. "Ordabasy" finally secured the championship
The truth is that the team missed the opportunity to decide its fate on its own. A win over "Zhenis" would have allowed them to become champions already Saturday, in the full stadium. But "Ordabasy" got tired: they only earned one point, finishing the match 9-0. However, the next day "Kairat" made a mistake in the clash with "Aktobe", so "Ordabasy" avoided a nervous finish and won the trophy early.
However, it is too early to think about resting. After "Irtish", the match against "Kaysar" in the final of the Kazakh Cup remains – the chance to achieve the golden double. Before that, rumours of a possible coaching change were also spread.
2. The squad will be far from the optimal version
Andrey Martin will likely reserve most of the core so that players rest and avoid injuries before the Cup final. At the same time, it is important to maintain the tone, so with "Irtish" it is unlikely we will see only substitute players. The midfielder suspended for dismissal in the match against "Zhenis", Jassulan Amir, will not enter the lineup, nor the defender Sergey Mali. The midfielder David Abagna, who has too many yellow cards, will also not help.
3. "Ordabasy" has decent statistics in away stadiums
Although all defeats in 2026 occurred on the road, "Ordabasy" lost only three of 16 matches in all competitions. Even the clash with "Caspian" (2:3) can be considered a significant loss, in addition to losses against "Kairat" and "Okzhetpes" from the leading groups. There were also draws in spring with "Astana" and "Altai", and the other 11 matches were wins.
In 14 away league matches 29 points were scored, "Ordabasy" occupies first place in points lost. In addition, it is ahead of everyone in goals scored (30) and goals conceded (12).
Approximate lineups
5-4-13-4-2-11
Richard12
Karimov4
Slambekov26
Mbozh5
Toleuvo66
Malikaydar7
Mukhamejanov8
Esimbekov56
Yudenkov6
Shimamura9
Kailil1
Shayzada8
Zhaksybaev55
Amanovich4
Keller11
Vakulk16
Kepetsane44
Kieta5
Antich10
Astanov9
Everton20
Toktybay
Betting trend
"Ordabasy" won three of the last four matches against "Irtish". P2 at 1.75.
Forecast
Irtish Pavlodar vs Ordabasy 31.10.2026 14:00
In the last round, "Irtish" achieved a very important victory over "Atyrau". By beating the direct rival away, the team has a high probability of maintaining its place in the KPL. However, to guarantee it 100% in the decisive match of the season, they must earn at least one more point. Otherwise, they will have to monitor the parallel matches. If several factors must be met for relegation, "Irtish" is clearly determined to save itself on its own, without external help. In such a situation, "Ordabasy" could have been the worst of the possible rivals, but the Shymkent team already secured the gold, so their visit to Pavlodar will be a formality. A week later, there will be another important match – the Kazakh Cup final. To avoid injuries and give players rest before the battle for the second title, Martin will likely choose an experimental squad. In this context, it is unlikely that "Ordabasy" will win.
Prediction: 1-1
