Freiburg – Bayern Munich: preview
We discuss the betting outlook for the match between Freiburg and Bayern Munich in the context of the 7th round of the 2026/27 Bundesliga.
"Bayern" leads the league, ahead of its nearest competitor only on tiebreakers. "Freiburg" is in the top‑tier triangle, one point behind the leader.
Key points
Freiburg
1. "Freiburg" lost the top spot and fell into the losing streak zone
The Julián Šuster side has become one of the season’s discoveries. It didn’t rise higher, but it showed consistently solid, quality play in matches where success was expected. In the first nine official games, "Freiburg" not only avoided defeat but also lost points only once, meaning it had eight wins in that stretch. However, the unpleasant away series caused problems: the trips to Leverkusen (1:2) and Monaco (0:3) ended in defeats. The top spot was lost, though it’s still early to panic.
2. The home side will come to the match with the most optimal lineup
The only thing that could prevent this are the head coach’s decisions, not the absences. There are difficulties, especially in defence: in the recovery room they are still trying to recover Florian Musli and Bruno Ogbus, but neither has come close to the starting XI. So Freiburg’s personnel situation can be considered almost ideal. The intrigue is reduced to rotation after the European competition week, but even here the options are quite obvious: everyone expects the return of Philipp Troy on the right flank of the defence, and in attack Deri Sherchant.
3. Is Brisgau ready for its first win over "Bayern" in 11 years?
That is the key question, because it’s hard to find a more perfect moment to speculate. "Freiburg" is in excellent form, plays at home, where it already has three wins at the start, and now the club record could be repeated. Yet the eternal leader will appear as the visitor, with whom in all history in all competitions only five wins have been achieved in over fifty matches. The last time Brisgau beat the Bavarians was in the league more than 11 years ago, but since then they have played twenty matches against them: 16 defeats on the passive side in that period. But in the current state, all odds are in favour of the long‑awaited surprise.
Bayern Munich
1. In a month "Bayern" won only once
The visitors have positive points. They have remained the only team in the upper leagues that has not lost once in all competitions. And thanks to the break from international matches, recent results are not so discouraging. Yet the team has played four matches in all competitions: the result was three draws and a complete demolition of Leipzig at home (6:1). This week, "Bayern" lost the victory against Arsenal in the Champions League (2:2) and although the draw was just for the scenario, the resentment was mild. Defeats against "Augsburg" (2:2) and "Viking" (3:3) are not justified. Conditions are not the best.
2. The coach in the hospital, Díaz left for a long period
Recently in Bayern’s personnel plan, blows are piling up one after another. Jamal Musiala is not recovering and does not return to form. Michael Olesi receives the dumbest red card. Before the game against Arsenal, the tragedy occurred in Joshua Kimmich’s family: the midfielder did not play and did not train the whole week. In the very game with the goalkeepers, Luis Díaz appeared only as a substitute, but did not finish the game: he was injured and was out for a month and a half. Now, due to the virus, he lost consciousness and was taken to the hospital the head coach, Vincent Compani – here the comments are unnecessary.
3. Harry Kane no longer leaves the field without productive action
In this period it can be said that the main – the entire current Bayern match is built entirely on Harry Kane. If someone thinks this is exaggerated – check the matches. The Englishman started poorly in the season, was useful, but in three matches he did not stand out, and then recorded 1+1 in the match against "Bude‑Glimt" in the Champions. And he has gone – since then 11 matches have passed with the national team and in each one Kane produced results. In this period he has 14+7, which speaks for itself. Against Arsenal, the draw is his merit, now the rested Olesi will help, but that doesn’t matter. Before the ZM ceremony, the striker will want to show himself again.
Approximate lineups
4-2-3-14-2-3-11
Bachhaus33
Makengo3
Linhart28
Ginter29
Troy8
Eggeshtain16
Engelhardt7
Sherchant14
Suzuki19
Beste31
Matanoovich40
Urbig27
Laimir2
Upamecano4
Ta11
Brown45
Pavlovich8
Bishof17
Olesi34
Sabyri19
David9
Kane
Trend betting
In five of the last eight direct encounters, no more than three goals were scored. Bet: TM 3.5 at 2.23.
In five of the last eight direct encounters, "Bayern" scored no more than two goals. Bet: ITM2 2.5 at 2.05.
Prediction
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich 25.10.2026 19:30
"Freiburg" expects a win over "Bayern" in the Bundesliga for more than 11 years, but at the moment it has the best opportunity. The Munich dolls are in bad shape, not only in the game but also psychologically – a win in four matches, the recovery room fills up, and the coach went to the hospital with the virus. Now it depends a lot on team cohesion and Harry Kane’s brilliance, but as practice shows, it is not always enough for victory. Of course, "Freiburg" is also in the worst form of the entire season start – already two consecutive losses without alternatives. But this time it will be a battle at home and in the ideal personnel situation. The home side can surprise, but despite the general trend we will not run far. Even in such a situation, the Bavarians will do everything possible to gain points and not allow a clear failure. Though there will be surprises.
Prediction: 2-2
