CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow: Preview
We have the information on the predictions for the match between CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv Moscow in the context of the fifth round of the group stage of the 2026/27 Russian Cup.
"Lokomotiv" on the brink of early elimination from the Cup – to keep playoff chances, they must beat CSKA at home.
Key points
CSKA Moscow
1. CSKA has four wins in five matches
The only defeat came a week and a half ago, in the away derby against "Dynamo" (1:3). The battle for the league leadership was quite even, but CSKA ran out of time in the final minutes: two late goals caused the first loss of the current season in the RPL. On the other hand, after that the soldiers bounced back in an even more important match against "Spartak": they scored two goals in 24 minutes and then kept the advantage thanks to ten saves by Maxim Boriskó.
In the Cup, CSKA failed in the first half of the group stage – in three rounds they only earned two points. But in the last match against "Rostov" we saw a very different attitude: the Moscowers won 4:0, with the first three goals scored already in the 11th minute. Thus CSKA returned to competing for a spot in the upper playoff.
2. Torop will play in goal
For a long time Vladislav Torop was the number one – the new Boriskó only trained in the Cup. However, recently Maxim finally debuted in the RPL with CSKA and delivered a brilliant performance that secured him the starting goalkeeper role. The hierarchy changes, so Torop will appear in the next Cup match. Overall, the starting lineup may be close to optimal.
3. CSKA becomes less prone to fail at home
At the beginning of the season there were several unnecessary mistakes, including the Cup game against "Akron" (0:1) – the only home loss of the season. But just after that meeting CSKA failed to win in the match against "Rubin" (1:1), where they had to play with a deficit from the 15th minute. After the break for the national team, the soldiers beat "Rodina", "Rostov" and "Spartak" with a total of 9:0.
The current unbeaten streak started with the derby against "Lokomotiv" – here CSKA was stronger in a shooting battle with five goals (3:2). This is already the third win of Dmitry Igdisamov over the railways.
Lokomotiv Moscow
1. "Lokomotiv" risks early exit from the Cup
In four rounds they did not win a single match. In addition, they lost in penalties in three games – including the first derby with CSKA. With only three points, "Loco" sits at the bottom of the group table. The loss at the "WEB Arena" will leave no chances even for third place. On the other hand, if they win in 90 minutes, "Lokomotiv" will finish above the soldiers.
Overall, an early exit from the Cup probably is not a catastrophe – in the current situation the most important thing is to improve the position in the RPL. Although at one point "Lokomotiv" recovered and escaped the survival zone, after a disappointing draw with "Krasnodar" and a loss to "Rostov", the club fell back to 13th.
2. "Loco" lost Bakáyev, Pinyáev and Bábkin under suspicion
"Lokomotiv" found itself in an uncomfortable situation after the match against "Rostov" – on the way back, the train the team was traveling on was attacked by a drone. The Moscowers were in another carriage, so there were no injuries, but the impression remained.
In addition, in Rostov-on-Don the winger Zelimhan Bakáyev was injured. The other offensive player, Sergey Pinyáev, will probably recover after a cold. The question is whether midfielder Sergey Bábkin will recover – a big question.
3. The Cup has major goal problems
If "Loco" scores, it does so strictly with one goal per game. The only goal in the first derby with CSKA came at the end, after which the team was silent for more than 230 minutes – until the second half of the home match against "Akron". In away stadiums, "Lokomotiv" did not score any goals in two matches. Two goals after four rounds is the worst performance in the RPL Route along with "Akron" and "Krylia Sovetov".
At the same time, the number of goals conceded is low – only three. Here "Loco" only lags behind "Moscow Dynamo", "Baltika" (2) and "Zenit" (1). But now a win is needed, so first an effective offensive game is required.
Approximate lineups
5-4-14-2-3-149 Torop2 Reyes23 Abdulkadirov4 Vitor90 Lukin21 Azzi20 Popovich31 Kislak10 Oblyakov19 Oleinikov32 Gondu22 Lanzratov24 Nenakhov23 Montes14 Djikia3 Fasson8 Kovalenko88 Chetinin9 Pinyáev18 Titkov19 Rudenkó11 Rakov
Betting on the trend
CSKA won four of the last five home matches against "Loco". P1 at 1.97.
In three of the last four encounters, both teams scored. OZ – yes at 1.71.
Prediction
CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow 29.10.2026 20:30
CSKA will play its third consecutive derby. The first ended in a disappointing loss to "Dynamo" (1:3), but then the team beat "Spartak" (2:0). The soldiers do not fall from the leaders' table in the RPL and at the same time continue the fight for a playoff spot in the Cup. Although the first half of the group stage was failed, in the last round CSKA was activated and smashed "Rostov" (4:0) – the first three goals were scored already in the 11th minute. Overall, the three home wins after the break for the national team were winning, with a total of 9:0.
"Lokomotiv" has not yet won a Cup match, with only three points in four rounds. The loss to CSKA will lead to early elimination. And if the team "will kill itself" – a big question, as now the most important thing is to correct the dangerous position in the league.
With Igdisamov, CSKA already has three wins over "Lokomotiv", two of them in regular time. The soldiers will probably win in 90 minutes.
Prediction: 2-1
