Ajax – AZ Alkmaar: preview
We have predictions for the encounter between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar in the 11th round of the Eredivisie for the 2026/27 season. In the 11th round, AZ Alkmaar will try to exploit Ajax’s home weakness and take three points from Amsterdam.
Key points
Ajax
1. Ajax is near the top, but needs to add stability to its results. The Amsterdam side is in second place with 21 points after ten rounds, which is not bad, but does not fully reflect the team’s championship ambitions. Although the current champion PSV is one point ahead of Ajax, it is three behind the leader Feyenoord. In the last round, Michiel’s team won away at Sparta (2:1) and before that beat Atalanta (2:0) in the Conference League. In the Eredivisie, however, Ajax’s stability is lacking: in the last seven matches, four wins, two draws and one loss (1:3 against PSV).
2. Bergheys, Edwards and Adingra are doubtful, Blijd returns to the squad. Steven Bergheys recovered from injury, but trained with an individual programme and it is unclear if he will be ready to play. Oliver Edwards and Simon Adingra are also doubtful. Meanwhile, Daily Blijd, who missed the start of the season due to back problems, finally returned to the field: in the match against Sparta he came on as a substitute at the end of the game, and although his full availability remains in doubt, Blijd is a good option to at least reinforce the bench.
3. At home, Ajax almost never wins. The support of the fans does not help much for the Amsterdam side; on the contrary, they lose more points on their own ground. They won the five away matches and even outperformed the leader Feyenoord in points lost, who drew away. The home statistics are much weaker: of the five Eredivisie matches at the Johan Cruijff Arena, the owners won only one (5:1 against Willem II), although they also lost one (1:3 PSV).
AZ Alkmaar
1. For AZ, the direct encounter is a good opportunity to overtake Ajax in the table. AZ is only one point behind Ajax and sits in fifth place, making the encounter especially important for the fight for the Champions League and possibly even the title. In recent weeks, however, Alkmaar’s performance has not been very favourable: in the last five rounds they earned only five points: one win (1:0 over outsider Telstar), two draws and two losses. In the previous round, AZ lost at home to Twente 0:2, conceding both goals in the second half, although they were more active in attack and more dangerous.
2. Keis Smith can finally return to the field at least as a substitute. The main news before the match against Ajax revolves around Keis Smith, the attacking midfielder who has not played since 20 September, who is gradually approaching his return. Leroi Ehteld and the player himself confirmed that Smith is almost fit and has good chances of returning to the field in the match in Amsterdam. However, there are no guarantees that he can start, but even as a substitute he can seriously reinforce Alkmaar’s attack.
3. AZ has not ceded to Ajax in a long time, but in Amsterdam, if they win, it is not a great victory. Ajax is one of AZ’s favourite rivals in recent years. Alkmaar has not lost in the direct encounters of 11 consecutive matches since 2022 – then Ajax was stronger in the cup semi‑final (2:0). Moreover, seven of these matches were won by Alkmaar, and last season, at home, they made a historic 6:0 against Ajax. In Amsterdam, however, AZ has not achieved big wins recently: twice they won by one goal (2:1 in 2021 and 2:1 in 2023), once by two (2:0 last season) and twice drew at the Johan Cruijff Arena.
Approximate lineups 4-3-3 4-2-3-1
Statistics
Bet on the trend
Ajax has not won four of the last five home Eredivisie matches, and AZ has not conceded in six of the last eight away matches. Bet: X2 at 2.10.
In eight of the last ten direct encounters between Ajax and AZ, no more than three goals were scored. Bet: TM3.5 at 1.82.
Forecast
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar 01.11.2026 00:00
Ajax occupies second place in the Eredivisie, but is three points behind the leader Feyenoord, and if the Amsterdam side is truly focused on the championship, that lag should be reduced. Stability, however, is still missing for Michiel’s team: in the last seven league matches, they achieved four wins, two draws and conceded to PSV. The home statistics are especially concerning: of the five meetings at the Johan Cruijff Arena, Ajax won only one. The squad situation is also not ideal: several injuries, Bergheys, Edwards and Adingra are doubtful, but at least Daily Blijd has returned to the field. AZ is only one point behind the Amsterdam side, but in the last five rounds they struggle to win and earn points. In the last match, AZ conceded to Twente, conceding both goals in the second half. However, AZ has a strong wildcard: an unbeaten streak of 11 matches against Ajax, seven of which ended in victories. Moreover, Keis Smith may recover for the match – even the midfielder’s entry as a substitute can reinforce the attack. Given Ajax’s home problems and AZ’s advantage in direct encounters, Leroi Ehteld’s team can take the points from Amsterdam.
Forecast: 1-1
