AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: preview
We have the predictions for the match between AEK and Real Madrid in the fourth round of the common phase of the 2026/27 Champions League.
AEK with three points occupies 29th place, trailing LASK in 24th place on tiebreakers. Real has nine points and is in fourth.
Key points
AEK Athens
1. AEK is going through a slump and falls into a psychological trap
In the 2025/26 season, Marco Nikolich led AEK to the title and a fourth-place finish in the Conference League group stage. In the current season, the task was harder: maintain champion status and perform well in the Champions. So far, neither in Europe nor domestically they have succeeded. In the Champions AEK started with a win over LASK, but then lost to Shakhtar (1:3) and Man City (1:5). They also lost the Greek Super Cup, were beaten by PAOK in the Greek Cup, and on 1 November suffered their first Super League defeat, losing to one of their main rivals, Panathinaikos (0:2). After the match, Nikolich said: “We were not 100 % psychologically prepared.”
2. Strakosha injured, Yovitch will face Real
The biggest loss for AEK is the first‑choice goalkeeper, Thomas Strakosha, who started the season well (four of six matches without conceding), but then broke his hand and will also miss the match against Real. He is replaced by Alberto Brignoli, who conceded eight goals to Shakhtar and Man City. In attack Luka Yovitch will play, familiar with Real Madrid: in his Serbian team he played 51 matches and scored three goals. In the current season Yovitch has already scored six goals with AEK, although he lost form: in six matches after the international break he scored only one goal.
3. AEK does not lose at home
Away, AEK has already lost four consecutive matches and in the nine away games of the season conceded 16 goals. At home they perform much better: in seven matches they won seven times, scored 30 goals and conceded only one. In the Champions at the “Aia Sofía” AEK first in the qualifying phase hammered Levski (4:0), and then in the common phase faced LASK (1:0). In spring in the Champions semi‑final they beat Rayo Vallecano (3:1), almost achieving a comeback after the away defeat (0:3).
Real Madrid
1. Real reaches its peak form
After the international break a turning point occurred. A comeback in the match against Roma (4:3) gave the squad confidence. Moreover, José Mourinho finally settled on the starting XI. As a result, after the break Real has six wins in six matches: in La Liga they closed the gap with Barcelona to three points, and in the Champions they maintain a 100 % performance. Finally the “Madrilene” feels confident in away matches, which at the start of the season were a problem: they won two consecutive games, beating Barcelona (2:1) and Racing (3:0).
2. Mourinho will make a small rotation
Real won the first three matches of the common phase, and their schedule is comfortable: only Arsenal is a serious rival, so they can focus on La Liga. Therefore José Mourinho will make a small rotation in the match against AEK, leaving out Denzel Dumfries, Álvaro Carreras, Antonio Rüdiger and Eduardo Camavinga. Vinícius Júnior will also return to the starting lineup, having not played in La Liga due to suspension. Federico Valverde did not play against Racing due to a minor injury, and he will also be protected in the Champions. The absence of the Uruguayan and the return of Vinícius will make Real’s wings more vulnerable, but in the match against AEK Mourinho can afford that. Rodri, Ferran Mendy and Raúl Asencio remain injured.
3. Real regained finishing
At the start of the season, one of Real’s main problems was finishing: they almost lost points against Inter (2:1) and lost to Betis (0:1). But after the international break, Madrid broke: in six matches, with 13.47 xG and 23 clear goal opportunities, they scored 18 goals. Finally they fine‑tuned Kylian Mbappé’s shooting, who had already scored in five consecutive matches, accumulating seven goals in that stretch. In the last two Champions matches Real conceded four goals to Roma and Leipzig.
Possible lineups
4-4-2-4-1-9
Brignoli 3
Pilios 4 4
Relvas 2
Mukudi 1 2
Rota 2 3
Mariu 1 8
Marin 1 6
Arriga 1 4
Mayor 9
Yovitch 1 9
Varga 1
Kurta 2 4
Dumfries 4
Heysen 2 2
Rüdiger 1 8
Carreras 2 0
Silva 6
Camavinga 1 5
Güler 5
Bellinghem 7
Júnior 10
Mbappé
Betting on trends
In four of the last six European competition matches for AEK and in four of the last six for Real, at least two goals were scored in the first half. Bet: first half TB 1.5 at 1.78.
In five of the last six matches for AEK a goal was scored, and Real conceded in four of the last six. Bet: IT1B 0.5 at 1.60.
Forecast
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid
04.11.2026 21:45
AEK is going through a difficult start. In the Champions they began with a win over LASK, but then lost to Shakhtar (1:3) and Man City (1:5). They also lost the Greek Super Cup, were eliminated from the Greek Cup and on 1 November suffered their first Super League defeat, losing to one of their main rivals, Panathinaikos (0:2). The first‑choice goalkeeper is injured. But at home AEK performs very well: in seven matches of the season, seven wins and only one goal conceded. After the international break, Real recovered: after the win over Roma (4:3) a psychological turn occurred that later reinforced success in the Clásico (2:1). In total, Real has already won six consecutive matches. Finally the finishing issue was resolved: in these six matches, with 13.47 xG and 23 clear goal opportunities, 18 goals were scored. Yes, in the match against AEK Mourinho will rotate, Vinícius will return to the lineup, without whom Madrid has fallen behind. But Real still needs to win.
Forecast: 1-3
