Valencia ― Vitoria: preview
We discuss the outlook for the match between Valencia and Vitoria in the 10th matchday of the 2026/27 Spanish league.
"Valencia" is in 19th place, two points behind the 17th spot. "Vitoria" is in 12th, two points from the relegation zone.
Key moments
Valencia
1. Aguirre awaits his first win
Javier Aguirre took over Valencia during the international break and already broke the losing streak: under the Mexican’s guidance, the batsmen drew with "Racing" (2:2) and with "Athletic Bilbao" (0:0). The defensive style characteristic of Aguirre is evident and effective: in the last matchday, "Valencia" broke a seven‑game goal drought. Aguirre is a crisis manager, but he always needs time to reorganise: in three of the last four cases, it took him between four and six matches for his first win, yet the Mexican kept his teams in the First Division three times. Valencia’s squad is much stronger, but time remains essential.
2. Sadik returns, but there are losses
One of Valencia’s main problems is the attack: in nine matches only six goals were scored. Ugo Duro is out of form and the main striker, Umar Sadik, was injured on 30 August. However, the Nigerian trained partially with the squad on 22 October and will almost certainly be ready for the game against Vitoria. He will not start, but will get minutes. Diego López, Sergio Canós and Dimitri Fulke remain injured. In particular, Fulke’s situation is very uncertain: he has not played since 1 February, training with an individual programme due to ongoing knee problems. His return date is unknown.
3. Aguirre is a specialist against "Vitoria"
Aguirre has already put Valencia’s defender in shape; his counter‑attack tactic almost worked in the match against "Athletic" (0:0), only execution was lacking (2.24:0.52 in xG). He can also control Vitoria’s attack. Moreover, he has done so regularly: in the last five meetings with the "yellow submarine", his "Leganes" and "Mallorca" secured three wins and only one loss. Aguirre knows how to ruin the favourites’ lives.
Vitoria
1. "Vitoria" plays well, but fatigue and disappointment may intervene
"Vitoria" has been in a restructuring period since the start of pre‑season, adapting to Inigo Perea’s style. The "yellow submarine" plays on two fronts, complicating the task. On 17 October, "Vitoria" drew with "Elche", although they should have won if not for execution. On 20 October they lost to "Liverpool" at "Anfield" (3:4) and reached two goals, but lost. Now, on 24 October, they have a tough away trip to Valencia. The team is physically tired, and disappointment over poor results despite good play adds up. Getting three points will be difficult.
2. "Vitoria" lost Romero and Saliba
The match against "Liverpool" added a headache for Perea: Carlos Romero and Nathan Saliba were injured. The main left‑back, Romero, was excluded from the squad due to muscular discomfort, and Saliba left the field at halftime due to thigh problems. They will continue evaluation, but with "Valencia" it is unlikely they will play; they will not appear at the start. Nicolas Pepe remains unavailable after eye surgery. Some rotation will occur, although the squad will not be weakened: at the start, Gerar Moreno, Ayoze Pérez, Juan Foyth and Ilias Ahomach will return.
3. "Vitoria" still fails to execute
The big problem for "Vitoria" at the start of the season is the execution of opportunities. With expected goals (22.43) the "yellow submarine" is third in the First Division after "Barcelona" and "Real", with 31 goal opportunities created, also third, and with 16.3 shots per game on average, fifth. But "Vitoria" scored only 13 goals, placing them seventh. It is the worst execution in the league, with a huge gap. The main culprit is Ayoze Pérez, who scored only one goal with 4.58 xG. Although the attack is not spectacular.
Approximate lineups 4-3-34-4-21
Betting on the trend
In four of the last six matches between "Valencia" and "Vitoria" both teams scored. Bet: both teams will score – Yes at 1.60.
In five of the last six home matches against "Vitoria", "Valencia" did not lose. Bet: 1X at 1.70.
Forecast
Valencia vs Vitoria 24.10.2026 20:30
Javier Aguirre took over Valencia during the international break and already broke the losing streak: under the Mexican’s guidance, the batsmen drew with "Racing" (2:2) and with "Athletic Bilbao" (0:0). Aguirre already put Valencia’s defender in shape, his counter‑attack tactic almost worked in the match against the Basques: only execution was missing (2.24:0.52 in xG). Aguirre knows how to ruin the favourites’ lives: his "Leganes" and "Mallorca" in the last five encounters with "Vitoria" secured three wins and only one loss. "Vitoria" faces two fronts, complicating the task. On 17 October they drew with "Elche" and should have won if not for execution. On 20 October they faced "Liverpool" at "Anfield" (3:4) and reached two goals, but lost. Now on 24 October they will travel to Valencia’s stadium. Fatigue adds to disappointment over poor results with good play. The main issue is execution: with 22.43 xG and 31 goal opportunities, only 13 goals were scored. We assume the teams will draw. Forecast: 1-1
