Sunderland – Dinamo Zagreb: preview
We have the forecast for the match between Sunderland and Dinamo Zagreb in the fourth round of the common phase of the 2026/27 Europa League.
"Sunderland" with seven points after three rounds sits ninth in the overall table. "Dinamo" is three points behind, in eighteenth.
Key points
Sunderland
1. Sunderland at the bottom of the Premier League table, but in other competitions almost everything is going well
The "Black Cats" in the first nine Premier League fixtures have only accumulated five points, of which barely one was earned in the last six matches. In contrast, Reggis Le Brie’s players are giving it their all in the League Cup, where they have already reached the quarter‑finals, and also in the Europa League. After hard‑won victories against Dutch side "AZ Alkmaar" (1:0) and Portuguese second‑division side "Torreense" (2:1), Sunderland drew with Polish side "Lech" (1:1).
2. There will be another squad rotation in the Europa League
In the second half of the recent Premier League match against "Coventry" right‑midfielder Tom Mönny and striker Wilson Izidor were taken off the bench, having been sidelined in recent games due to injuries. Reggis Le Brie again has more room for rotation, which is usually applied in Europa League matches. However, among the players who appeared in the third round against "Lech", the right‑back Nordi Mukiéle and midfielder Habib Diarra will miss the next game. At the back, Omar Aldrete will play — there is no need to protect the central defender before the Sunday Premier League match, which will be lost due to suspension.
3. Sunderland could score more, but the opposition goalkeepers made miracles
Sunderland launched 67 shots on target against "AZ Alkmaar", "Torreense" and "Lech", of which 21 were on target. According to xG metrics, these attempts added up to 7.46 expected goals, but the actual number of goals was only four, one of which was a penalty. Lack of execution and luck were factors. In particular, the goalkeepers of the three opponents were highlighted in UEFA’s best saves list for the round, and the "AZ Alkmaar" keeper was in the top‑5 of saves on two occasions.
Dinamo Zagreb
1. Six wins in 13 matches across all competitions — Dinamo has been unstable recently
The Zagreb club did not reach the Champions League after losing the decisive qualification match against "Vikings". In the first three rounds of the Europa League, Dinamo achieved a full set of results: a 0-0 draw with "Hapoel Be'er Sheva", a narrow win over "Anderlecht" and a spectacular loss to NEC (2:4). At the same time, Dinamo is not very secure in the Croatian league, where it has only won four of the last eight matches, and lost two of the last four. In the Croatian Cup, Dinamo has only six wins and two draws in the last 13 games.
2. The Scottish national team defender is injured, and two more players are doubtful
One of the key defenders, Scott McKenna, injured his back in training and will not return to the field before the next international break. Stepan Radelić, who replaced the Scotsman in the central defender position, was omitted from the squad for the match against "Reik" due to illness. In the same match, winger Daniel Rodríguez, who recently recovered from an injury and finally found his optimal form, suffered a painful facial blow and is now training with a protective mask. The participation of both players in the next match is doubtful.
3. Dinamo will play at home in European competitions for the first time since August
The supposed away match against "Hapoel Be'er Sheva" was played on a neutral ground in Bucharest. So the last outing of Dinamo was the summer defeat to "Vikings" in Champions League qualification. Only two of the last eight European trips ended in regulation‑time victories — in Gijón and Kaunas. Additionally, 12 trips to England in the last 30 years produced only one 0-0 draw with "Manchester United", a narrow win over "West Ham" and 10 defeats with a total score of 4:25.
Approximate lineups
4-2-3-1-4-3-3-2-2-2
Rufus 6, Metal 15, Aldrete 4, Danso 12, Mönny 29, Ahoka 27, Sadiki 28, Le Fe 39, Fofana 10, Angulo 18, Izidor 24, Kotsarski 25, Valincic 15, Galeshich 36, Domínguez 22, Vinlöf 27, Mijic 10, Stojkovic 17, Ivanushche 23, Almena 11, Hojja 9, Drina Belyo
Trend bets
Both teams scored in four of Sunderland’s last six matches and in four of Dinamo’s last six games. OZ(да) at 1.79. At least three goals were scored in Sunderland’s last two matches, and also in 14 of Dinamo’s last 18 matches. TB(2.5) at 1.65.
Forecast
Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb 06.11.2026 00:00
Sunderland, which fell to the bottom of the Premier League table, plays in European competitions with a reserve squad, but earns points consistently. However, by creating many chances, the "Black Cats" turned the opposition goalkeepers into heroes in their three Europa League matches, making amazing saves, so the seven points were earned with only four goals scored.
Dinamo in the Europa League has four points from the narrow home win against "Anderlecht" and the 0-0 draw with "Hapoel Be'er Sheva" on neutral ground. At the same time, the Zagreb club has even suffered three defeats in the last six Croatian league matches.
12 trips to England in European competitions resulted in 10 defeats and a win over "West Ham" in 2021. However, Sunderland’s brilliant play in European matches and Dinamo’s poor form give us no reason to expect a repeat of that success. We expect a small home win for the local team.
Forecast: 2-1
