Real Madrid – RB Leipzig: preview
We have the predictions for the match between Real Madrid and RB Leipzig in the third round of the group stage of the Champions League 2026/27. "Real" has won three consecutive matches and shows maximum performance in the Champions. The encounter with the gloomy "Leipzig" is the opportunity to extend the good streaks.
Key points
Real Madrid
1. In October "Real" does not make mistakes
Throughout the season, "Madrid" practically only made two mistakes: at the beginning of September they lost to "Betis" (0:1), and before the big break for internationals they lost the derby to "Atlético" (1:2). After the three‑week break, "Real" won two consecutive La Liga matches, but this only helped them move from fourth to third in the table. Six points behind the leader "Barcelona", and next Sunday the personal match will be played at the "Camp Nou". In the Champions, "Real" has a 100% record. After the home win against "Inter" (2:1), "Madrid" performed an incredible comeback in the away match against "Roma": at 82 minutes they were 1:3, but then scored three consecutive goals, winning all three points, even though it seemed there would be no draw.
2. Vinicius will be in the starting XI
This was announced by José Mourinho: according to him, Vinicius is necessary for "Real" in his best state, and in the Champions the Brazilian can keep the pace of play during the suspension in the Prime framework. In the last match against "Sevilla", instead of Vinicius, Yan Domiande shone: the Ivuri player made 1+1 and participated in the four goals of "Real". However, in the game against the former team, it seems he will have to leave his favourite position and return to the right flank.
3. With Mourinho, Real has not yet made a mistake at "Santiago Bernabéu"
Both defeats after Mourinho’s return were away games. In their own stadiums, Real has already won five matches in the Prime framework, four of which were great. "Madrid" scored four goals against everyone, except "Villarreal", where they only scored one goal. Fifteen points at home is the best figure in La Liga. The first home Champions match was tricky: in the battle against "Inter", "Real" was at risk of losing the goal in the last two minutes. But this encounter could also have been calmer if there had been no execution problems: "Madrid" players did not take advantage of seven goal opportunities.
RB Leipzig
1. Has only conceded six goals to "Bayern"
Martin Demichelis’s work raises many questions: two weeks ago rumors spread about the possible return of Julian Nagelsmann. After the international break, "Leipzig" seemed to be winning: first they beat "Eintracht" (6:0) and then earned their first Champions points, beating PSV (1:0). However, the enthusiasm period was brief. Saturday there was a terrible match against "Bayern" at the "Allianz Arena": "Leipzig" fell with a score of 1:6, and their only goal was scored in the 91st minute. Now the club has the same number of wins and losses in the Bundesliga (3 each), and the same situation in the Champions.
2. Changes are expected after the devastation in Munich
The anti‑hero of the last match was Lucas Klostermann, who unexpectedly appeared in the starting XI for the first time since April: until minute 59, the experienced defender made mistakes in almost every goal opportunity for "Bayern". Now, on the right side of the defense, Benjamin Henriques or Bote Baku will start. In midfield, Andrija Maksimovic can play. The defender, who previously scored in the Champions against "Como", scored his second goal of the season, although he only played 20 minutes.
3. "Leipzig" has failed most away matches
In the current season, the venue becomes one of the key factors influencing the result. At home, "Leipzig" does not even concede: they won the four matches with a total of 15:0. Away, they only lost in the cup competition against "Eintracht" of the fourth division, where they won 6:0, but then followed with four consecutive defeats. Moreover, "Leipzig" lost even without much struggle: two matches ended in overwhelming defeats (including the match with "Como" in the Champions), in the other cases they lost by a two‑goal margin. The team only scored three goals, two of them after 90 minutes. Fifteen goals were conceded.
Estimated line‑ups
4-2-3-1
4-5-11
Kurta 17
Kukurel 4
Heissen 22
Rudiger 24
Dumfris 14
Tchouameni 15
Gueler 7
Junior 5
Belinghem 25
Domiande 10
Mbappe 26
Vandewort 39
Henriks 4
Orbán 23
Lukiba 22
Raum 10
Gruda 30
Maksimovic 21
El Ayani 6
Banzuzi 7
Nusa 28
Nunkku
Betting on the trend
In three of the last four encounters between "Real" and "Leipzig", a maximum of two goals were scored. The total under 2.5 for 3.88.
"Leipzig" did not lose by more than two goals in the last four matches against "Real". The advantage of 2 (+2.5) for 1.66.
Forecast
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig 21.10.2026 23:00
In the current season, "Real" has only made two mistakes, and it is important that both occurred in the away Prime matches. After the second defeat, we saw three consecutive victories: Mourinho’s team won two matches in their own stadium, and among them achieved an incredible comeback in the Champions: three goals in seven minutes helped reverse the away match with "Roma" (4:3). At "Santiago Bernabéu", "Real" is usually calmer.
"Leipzig" under Demichelis depends more than ever on their home ground: at home they do not make mistakes and do not even concede, and away they lose in all matches, except in the cup against a fourth‑division club. The team just lost without opportunities against "Bayern" at the "Allianz Arena" (1:6), the other away matches were also one‑sided. In Madrid, "Leipzig" faces another likely defeat — luck if they do not lose by an overwhelming margin.
Forecast: 3-1
