Alaves – Málaga: preview
We have information on the predictions for the match between Alaves and Málaga in the context of the tenth round of the 2026/27 Spanish league.
"Alaves" occupies seventh place, three points behind sixth‑placed "Sevilla". "Málaga" sits at the bottom of the table, three points above the 17th‑place safety spot.
Key points
Alaves
1. Alaves’ winless streak has lengthened
Alaves started the league with dominance, winning three games and earning ten points in the first four matches. With that momentum, the Basques were near the European qualification zone. But the dream ended: in the next five matches, Alaves earned only one point from a possible fifteen, suffering four defeats. Moreover, they never lost a match by more than one goal. In the last round, Alaves lost to "Celta" (1:2), although they outperformed their opponent in xG (1.18:0.76) and shots (20:6). The performance is good, but the results are lacking; Kike Sánchez Flores can feel calm, as the table position still allows working with composure.
2. Martín is replaced by Díaz in the lineup, Pérez returns to the squad
Alaves’ main right‑back, Angel Pérez, missed the match against Celta due to a red‑card suspension from the game with "Atlético". He will now return to the starting XI. On the other hand, Toni Martín will almost certainly be a substitute. In the 2025/26 season he scored 18 goals, becoming the team’s top scorer. In the current season he has not scored or created chances, with an xG of 2.18. Mariano Díaz will appear alongside Lucas Boe – former striker of "Real" Madrid – who has already scored three goals and provided four assists, becoming the star of an excellent start to the season.
3. Pressing and defense have deteriorated
At the start of the season, Alaves was one of the teams with the most pressure in the league, but in the last five matches they have been eighteenth in pressure intensity, increasing the burden on the defense. Alaves does not concede many goals by their own standards – seven goals in five matches – but they have not managed a clean sheet in any of those games. The match against Málaga is the best chance to regain reliability, as the "jellyfish" are the worst in the league in terms of build‑up play.
Málaga
1. Málaga struggles to adapt to Alaves
Málaga remains the only team in the league that has not secured a win in nine matches: they have four draws and five defeats. The "jellyfish" are literally in last place, both in actual and expected points. The new summer signings have not met expectations; the squad is mainly composed of players who competed with Málaga last season for promotion. Only four players have La Liga experience before the current season. Juan Funes’ resignation is not yet confirmed, but during the match against "Real Sociedad" (2:5) there were cries that the coach should leave – the situation is heating up.
2. Málaga has lost five players The Málaga squad is already one of the weakest in the league, and it is weakening further due to injuries. In the match against "Sociedad", Joaquín Muñoz suffered a calf muscle injury and will miss several weeks. In the dressing room are Juan Cruz, Diego Murillo, Aaron Ochoa and Julen Lobete. The four have not trained with the main group two days before the match against Alaves, so they will not appear on the field. Of the seven newcomers, only one has become an undisputed starter: Pablo Martín, although he plays in an unusual position – he acts as a central midfielder, although he is a striker.
3. The attack hurts Málaga In the nine league matches, Málaga has scored six goals, created eight clear chances, and had an xG of 8.25 – overall, the "jellyfish" attack is the worst in the league. The leaders are failing. Chupe (25 goals in the 2025/26 season) and David Larroubía (12 goals in the 2025/26 season) have scored only one goal between them. The top scorer with three goals remains Adrián Niño, who is not the main striker, and appears only once in the starting lineup in five matches of the season.
Estimated lineups 3-5-2-4-3-11
Sivera 2
Valentini 16
Coski 14
Tenalla 21
Rebax 4
Suarez 8
Blanco 19
Ibanez 7
Perez 15
Boye 9
Diaz 1
Erreero 31
Garrido 20
Calero 15
Resio 39
Aznu 8
Dotor 18
Martinez 10
Larroubía 22
Lorenzo 21
Nino 9
Chupe
Betting predictions
In four of the last six matches of Alaves and in four of the last six matches of Málaga, both teams scored. Bet: both teams will score – Yes at 1.95.
In four of the last six matches with Málaga, Alaves won. Bet: P1 at 1.75.
Prediction
Alaves vs Málaga 23.10.2026 23:00
Alaves started the league with dominance, winning three games and earning ten points in the first four matches. But in the next five games, the Basques never won, suffering four defeats. The pressing is poor, and in this stretch it is one of the worst in the league. Hence the defensive problems (seven goals conceded in five matches). On the other hand, Alaves plays well and can break the bad streak at any time. Málaga remains the only team in the league that has not won in nine matches: they have four draws and five defeats. The "jellyfish" are literally in last place, both in actual and expected points. In the dressing room there are already five players, and the team no longer meets league level. The attack is the worst in the league: in nine matches, Málaga scored six goals, created eight clear chances, and had an xG of 8.25. Let’s assume Alaves wins. Prediction: 1-0
